Back to Vocabulary

Prebound Effect

Area: Design, planning and building

The concept ‘prebound effect’ refers to the phenomenon where actual energy consumption in buildings is significantly lower than the calculated energy consumption needed to maintain comfortable indoor temperatures (Sunikka-Blank & Galvin, 2012). This is typically observed in older, less energy-efficient homes, where occupants often under-heat their homes due to financial constraints, leading to lower actual energy usage than predicted by models (Galvin & Sunikka-Blank, 2016). This contrasts with the more commonly used term ‘rebound effect’, which occurs when energy consumption increases following efficiency improvements, offsetting some of the anticipated savings (Teli et al., 2015). The difference between the two is clearly visualised in Figure 1, developed by Sunikka-Blank and Galvin (2012).

 

 

Energy savings discrepancies

 

The prebound effect leads to significant discrepancies in energy savings estimates for retrofitting projects. Standard models often overestimate energy savings because they do not account for the lower baseline consumption caused by the prebound effect. This discrepancy is crucial because it implies that thermal retrofits may not yield the anticipated reductions in energy use and carbon emissions, which are often overstated in policy and financial analyses (Galvin, 2023).

 

For instance, in Hungary, research shows that energy consumption predictions are often based on technical data alone, ignoring actual under-consumption behaviours, leading to overestimates in expected savings (Gróf et al., 2022). Similarly, in Italy, studies have highlighted that prebound effects cause a gap between theoretical energy models and actual energy usage, complicating the accurate forecasting of energy savings from retrofits (Giuliani et al., 2016). The study by Van den Brom et al. (2019) also supports this, showing that building characteristics and occupant behavior significantly influence energy consumption, with discrepancies between expected and actual savings due to prebound effects being notable in both the Netherlands and Denmark.

 

Additionally, Gróf et al. (2022) emphasised that the prebound effect is influenced by the financial status of households, with households having limited financial means more likely to under-heat their homes, resulting in a greater prebound effect and further complicating the prediction of energy savings.

 

Inherently linked to energy poverty

 

Therefore, the prebound effect is closely linked to energy poverty, as it often reflects the behaviour of households that cannot afford to heat their homes adequately. Households experiencing fuel poverty are more likely to exhibit high prebound effects due to their efforts to save money on heating (Galvin & Sunikka-Blank, 2016). For instance, social housing tenants in the UK showed significant prebound effects, leading to under-heated homes and reduced energy consumption prior to retrofitting (Teli et al., 2015). Addressing the prebound effect involves recognising and mitigating the financial constraints that lead to under-consumption, thus improving both the accuracy of energy savings predictions and the living conditions of households experiencing energy poverty (Galvin, 2024a, 2024b).

 

Moreover, hidden energy poverty is a critical aspect of this issue. Households often are not categorised as energy poor based on expenditure-based indicators because they do not dare to put their heating on due to financial constraints (Cong et al., 2022; Eisfeld & Seebauer, 2022). These households minimise their heating to the point where their energy expenditures are deceptively low, masking the severity of their situation. However, more recent indicators that focus on energy efficiency rather than high costs would identify them as energy poor (Betto et al., 2020). Addressing hidden energy poverty requires a shift in assessment criteria, also focusing on the energy efficiency of homes rather than just the high cost of energy bills. This approach ensures that households struggling with inadequate heating due to financial constraints are accurately identified and supported (Croon et al., 2023).

References

Betto, F., Garengo, P., & Lorenzoni, A. (2020). A new measure of Italian hidden energy poverty. Energy Policy, 138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111237

Cong, S., Nock, D., Qiu, Y. L., & Xing, B. (2022, May 4). Unveiling hidden energy poverty using the energy equity gap. Nat Commun, 13(1), 2456. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30146-5

Croon, T. M., Hoekstra, J. S. C. M., Elsinga, M. G., Dalla Longa, F., & Mulder, P. (2023). Beyond headcount statistics: Exploring the utility of energy poverty gap indices in policy design. Energy Policy, 177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113579

Eisfeld, K., & Seebauer, S. (2022). The energy austerity pitfall: Linking hidden energy poverty with self-restriction in household use in Austria. Energy Research & Social Science, 84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102427

Galvin, R. (2023). How prebound effects compromise the market premium for energy efficiency in German house sales. Building Research & Information, 51(5), 501-517. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2023.2176284

Galvin, R. (2024a). The economic losses of energy-efficiency renovation of Germany's older dwellings: The size of the problem and the financial challenge it presents. Energy Policy, 184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113905

Galvin, R. (2024b). Reducing poverty in the UK to mitigate energy poverty by the 10% and LIHC indicators: What tax changes are needed, and what are the consequences for CO2 emissions? Ecological Economics, 217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108055

Galvin, R., & Sunikka-Blank, M. (2016). Quantification of (p)rebound effects in retrofit policies – Why does it matter? Energy, 95, 415-424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.034

Giuliani, M., Henze, G. P., & Florita, A. R. (2016). Modelling and calibration of a high-mass historic building for reducing the prebound effect in energy assessment. Energy and Buildings, 116, 434-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.01.034

Gróf, G., Janky, B., & Bethlendi, A. (2022). Limits of household's energy efficiency improvements and its consequence – A case study for Hungary. Energy Policy, 168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113078

Sunikka-Blank, M., & Galvin, R. (2012). Introducing the prebound effect: the gap between performance and actual energy consumption. Building Research & Information, 40(3), 260-273. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2012.690952

Teli, D., Dimitriou, T., James, P. A. B., Bahaj, A. S., Ellison, L., & Waggott, A. (2015). Fuel poverty-induced ‘prebound effect’ in achieving the anticipated carbon savings from social housing retrofit. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, 37(2), 176-193. https://doi.org/10.1177/0143624415621028

Van den Brom, P., Meijer, A., & Visscher, H. (2019). Actual energy saving effects of thermal renovations in dwellings—longitudinal data analysis including building and occupant characteristics. Energy and Buildings, 182, 251-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.10.025

Created on 20-06-2024 | Update on 14-10-2024

Related definitions

Area: Design, planning and building

Environmental Retrofit Buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of energy consumption and 36% of carbon emissions in the EU (European Commission, 2021). Environmental retrofit, green retrofit or low carbon retrofits of existing homes ais to upgrade housing infrastructure, increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, tackle fuel poverty, and improve comfort, convenience and aesthetics (Karvonen, 2013). It is widely acknowledged that environmental retrofit should result in a reduction of carbon emissions by at least 60% in order to stabilise atmospheric carbon concentration and mitigate climate change (Fawcett, 2014; Johnston et al., 2005). Worldwide retrofit schemes such as RetrofitWorks, EnerPHit and the EU’s Renovation Wave, use varying metrics to define low carbon retrofit, but their universally adopted focus has been on end-point performance targets (Fawcett, 2014). This fabric-first approach to retrofit prioritises improvements to the building fabric through: increased thermal insulation and airtightness; improving the efficiency of systems such as heating, lighting and electrical appliances; and the installation of renewables such as photovoltaics (Institute for Sustainability & UCL Energy Institute, 2012). The whole-house systems approach to retrofit further considers the interaction between the occupant, the building site, climate, and other elements or components of a building (Institute for Sustainability & UCL Energy Institute, 2012). In this way, the building becomes an energy system with interdependent parts that strongly affect one another, and energy performance is considered a result of the whole system activity. Economic Retrofit From an economic perspective, retrofit costs are one-off expenses that negatively impact homeowners and landlords, but reduce energy costs for occupants over the long run. Investment in housing retrofit, ultimately a form of asset enhancing, produces an energy premium attached to the property. In the case of the rental market, retrofit expenses create a split incentive whereby the landlord incurs the costs but the energy savings are enjoyed by the tenant (Fuerst et al., 2020). The existence of energy premiums has been widely researched across various housing markets following Rosen’s hedonic pricing model. In the UK, the findings of Fuerst et al. (2015) showed the positive effect of energy efficiency over price among home-buyers, with a price increase of about 5% for dwellings rated A/B compared to those rated D. Cerin et al. (2014) offered similar results for Sweden. In the Netherlands, Brounen and Kok (2011), also identified a 3.7% premium for dwellings with A, B or C ratings using a similar technique. Property premiums offer landlords and owners the possibility to capitalise on their  retrofit investment through rent increases or the sale of the property. While property premiums are a way to reconcile          split incentives between landlord and renter, value increases pose questions about long-term affordability of retrofitted units, particularly, as real an expected energy savings post-retrofit have been challenging to reconcile (van den Brom et al., 2019). Social Retrofit A socio-technical approach to retrofit elaborates on the importance of the occupant. To meet the current needs of inhabitants, retrofit must be socially contextualized and comprehended as a result of cultural practices, collective evolution of know-how, regulations, institutionalized procedures, social norms, technologies and products (Bartiaux et al., 2014). This perspective argues that housing is not a technical construction that can be improved in an economically profitable manner without acknowledging that it’s an entity intertwined in people’s lives, in which social and personal meaning are embedded. Consequently, energy efficiency and carbon reduction cannot be seen as a merely technical issue. We should understand and consider the relationship that people have developed in their dwellings, through their everyday routines and habits and their long-term domestic activities (Tjørring & Gausset, 2018). Retrofit strategies and initiatives tend to adhere to a ‘rational choice’ consultation model that encourages individuals to reduce their energy consumption by focusing on the economic savings and environmental benefits through incentive programs, voluntary action and market mechanisms (Karvonen, 2013). This is often criticized as an insufficient and individualist approach, which fails to achieve more widespread systemic changes needed to address the environmental and social challenges of our times (Maller et al., 2012). However, it is important to acknowledge the housing stock as a cultural asset that is embedded in the fabric of everyday lifestyles, communities, and livelihoods (Ravetz, 2008). The rational choice perspective does not consider the different ways that occupants inhabit their homes, how they perceive their consumption, in what ways they interact with the built environment, for what reasons they want to retrofit their houses and which ways make more sense for them, concerning the local context. A community-based approach to domestic retrofit emphasizes the importance of a recursive learning process among experts and occupants to facilitate the co-evolution of the built environment and the communities (Karvonen, 2013). Involving the occupants in the retrofit process and understanding them as “carriers” of social norms, of established routines and know-how, new forms of intervention  can emerge that are experimental, flexible and customized to particular locales (Bartiaux et al., 2014). There is an understanding that reconfiguring socio-technical systems on a broad scale will require the participation of occupants to foment empowerment, ownership, and the collective control of the domestic retrofit (Moloney et al., 2010).

Created on 16-02-2022 | Update on 07-10-2022

Read more ->
Energy Retrofit

Author: S.Furman (ESR2)

Area: Design, planning and building

Buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of energy consumption and 36% of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU (European Commission, 2021). Energy retrofit is also referred to as building energy retrofit, low carbon retrofit, energy efficiency retrofit and energy renovation; all terms related to the upgrading of existing buildings energy performance to achieve high levels of energy efficiency. Energy retrofit significantly reduces energy use and energy demand (Femenías et al., 2018; Outcault et al., 2022), tackles fuel (energy) poverty, and lowers carbon emissions (Karvonen, 2013). It is widely acknowledged that building energy retrofit should result in a reduction of carbon emissions by at least 60% compared with pre-retrofit emissions, in order to stabilise atmospheric carbon concentration and mitigate climate change (Fawcett, 2014; Outcault et al., 2022). Energy retrofit can also improve comfort, convenience, and aesthetics (Karvonen, 2013). There are two main approaches to deep energy retrofit, fabric-first and whole-house systems. The fabric-first approach prioritises upgrades to the building envelope through four main technical improvements: increased airtightness; increased thermal insulation; improving the efficiency of systems such as heating, lighting, and electrical appliances; and installation of renewables such as photovoltaics (Institute for Sustainability & UCL Energy Institute, 2012). The whole-house systems approach to retrofit further considers the interaction between the climate, building site, occupant, and other components of a building (Institute for Sustainability & UCL Energy Institute, 2012). In this way, the building becomes an energy system with interdependent parts that strongly affect one another, and energy performance is considered a result of the whole system activity. Energy retrofit can be deep, over-time, or partial (Femenías et al., 2018). Deep energy retrofit is considered a onetime event that utilises all available energy saving technologies at that time to reduce energy consumption by 60% - 90% (Fawcett, 2014; Femenías et al., 2018). Over-time retrofit spreads the deep retrofit process out over a strategic period of time, allowing for the integration of future technologies (Femenías et al., 2018). Partial retrofit can also involve several interventions over time but is particularly appropriate to protect architectural works with a high cultural value, retrofitting with the least-invasive energy efficiency measures (Femenías et al., 2018). Energy retrofit of existing social housing tends to be driven by cost, use of eco-friendly products, and energy savings (Sojkova et al., 2019). Energy savings are particularly important in colder climates where households require greater energy loads for space heating and thermal comfort and are therefore at risk of fuel poverty (Sojkova et al., 2019; Zahiri & Elsharkawy, 2018). Similarly, extremely warm climates requiring high energy loads for air conditioning in the summer can contribute to fuel poverty and will benefit from energy retrofit (Tabata & Tsai, 2020). Femenías et al’s (2018) extensive literature review on property owners’ attitudes to energy efficiency argues that retrofit is typically motivated by other needs, referred to by Outcault et al (2022) as ‘non-energy impacts’ (NEIs). While lists of NEIs are inconsistent in the literature, categories related to “weatherization retrofit” refer to comfort, health, safety, and indoor air quality (Outcault et al., 2022). Worldwide retrofit schemes such as RetrofitWorks and EnerPHit use varying metrics to define low carbon retrofit, but their universally adopted focus has been on end-point performance targets, which do not include changes to energy using behaviour and practice (Fawcett, 2014). An example of an end-point performance target is Passivhaus’ refurbishment standard (EnerPHit), which requires a heating demand below 25 kWh/(m²a) in cool-temperate climate zones; zones are categorised according to the Passive House Planning Package (PHPP) (Passive House Institute, 2016).  

Created on 23-05-2022 | Update on 20-09-2022

Read more ->
Performance Gap in Retrofit

Author: S.Furman (ESR2)

Area: Design, planning and building

The performance gap in retrofit refers to the disparity between the predicted and actual energy consumption after a retrofit project, measured in kWh/m2/year. This discrepancy can be substantial, occasionally reaching up to five times the projected energy usage (Traynor, 2019). Sunikka-Blank & Galvin (2012) identify four key factors as contributing to the performance gap: (1) the rebound effect, (2) the prebound effect, (3) interactions of occupants with building components, and (4) the uncertainty of building performance simulation outcomes. Gupta & Gregg (2015) additionally identify elevated building air-permeability rates as a factor leading to imbalanced and insufficient extract flowrates, exacerbating the performance gap. While post occupancy evaluation of EnerPhit—the Passivhaus Institut certification for retrofit—has shown far better building performance in line with predictions, the human impact of building users operating the building inefficiently will always lead to some sort of performance gap (Traynor, 2019, p. 34). Deeper understanding of the prebound effect and the rebound effect can improve energy predictions and aid in policy-making (Galvin & Sunikka-Blank, 2016). Therefore, the ‘prebound effect’ and the ‘rebound effect’, outlined below, are the most widely researched contributors to the energy performance gaps in deep energy retrofit.   Prebound Effect The prebound effect manifests when the actual energy consumption of a dwelling falls below the levels predicted from energy rating certifications such as energy performance certificates (EPC) or energy performance ratings (EPR). According to Beagon et al. (2018, p.244), the prebound effect typically stems from “occupant self-rationing of energy and increases in homes of inferior energy ratings—the type of homes more likely to be rented.” Studies show that the prebound effect can result in significantly lower energy savings post-retrofit than predicted and designed to achieve (Beagon et al., 2018; Gupta & Gregg, 2015; Sunikka-Blank & Galvin, 2012). Sunikka-Blank & Galvin’s (2012) study compared the calculated space and water heating energy consumption (EPR) with the actual measured consumption of 3,400 German dwellings and corroborated similar findings of the prebound effect in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and the UK. Noteworthy observations from this research include: (1) substantial variation in space heating energy consumption among dwellings with identical EPR values; (2) measured consumption averaging around 30% lower than EPR predictions; (3) a growing disparity between actual and predicted performance as EPR values rise, reaching approximately 17% for dwellings with an EPR of 150 kWh/m²a to about 60% for those with an EPR of 500 kWh/m²a (Sunikka-Blank & Galvin, 2012); and (4) a reverse trend occurring for dwellings with an EPR below 100 kWh/m²a, where occupants consume more energy than initially calculated in the EPR, referred to as the rebound effect. Galvin & Sunikka-Blank (2016) identify that a combination of high prebound effect and low income is a clear indicator of fuel poverty, and suggest this metric be utilised to target retrofit policy initiatives.   Rebound Effect The rebound effect materializes when energy-efficient buildings consume more energy than predicted. Occupants perceive less guilt associated with their energy consumption and use electrical equipment and heating systems more liberally post-retrofit, thereby diminishing the anticipated energy savings (Zoonnekindt, 2019). Santangelo & Tondelli (2017) affirm that the rebound effect arises from occupants’ reduced vigilance towards energy-related behaviours, under the presumption that enhanced energy efficiency in buildings automatically decreases consumption, regardless of usage levels and individual behaviours. Galvin (2014) further speculates several factors contributing to the rebound effect, including post-retrofit shifts in user behaviour, difficulties in operating heating controls, inadequacies in retrofit technology, or flawed mathematical models for estimating pre- and post-retrofit theoretical consumption demand. The DREEAM project, funded by the European Union, discovered instances of electrical system misuse in retrofitted homes upon evaluation (Zoonnekindt, 2019). A comprehensive comprehension of the underlying causes of the rebound effect is imperative for effective communication with all retrofit stakeholders and for addressing these issues during the early design stages.   Engaging residents in the retrofit process from the outset can serve as a powerful strategy to mitigate performance gaps. Design-thinking (Boess, 2022), design-driven approaches (Lucchi & Delera, 2020), and user-centred design (Awwal et al., 2022; van Hoof & Boerenfijn, 2018) foster socially inclusive retrofit that considers Equality, Diversity, and Inclusion (EDI). These inclusive approaches can increase usability of technical systems, empower residents to engage with retrofit and interact with energy-saving technology, and enhance residents’ energy use, cultivating sustainable energy practices as habitual behaviours. Consequently, this concerted effort not only narrows the performance gap but simultaneously enhances overall wellbeing and fortifies social sustainability within forging communities.

Created on 08-09-2023 | Update on 01-12-2023

Read more ->

Related cases

No entries

Related publications

No entries

Relational graph

icon case study Case Study
icon case study Concept
icon case study Publication
icon case study Blogposts